If I were to offer a single piece of advice to Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Phạm Minh Chính, it would be this: “Publicly announce you will retire after this term.”
The reason is captured by the sentiment of former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga: “You cannot effectively manage a national pandemic while simultaneously campaigning for the leadership of the ruling party.”
Globally, no politician (outside of a dictatorship) can balance making the best, most impactful decisions for the country—which are often controversial—with the imperative of ensuring their own political future.
The crisis of decentralized warlords
The Prime Minister’s decision-making power is being severely compromised by political calculations related to his future.
Currently, local authorities are acting like feudal warlords (sứ quân), each adopting a different approach to epidemic control. They are “closing rivers and banning markets,” imposing wildly inconsistent quarantine rules, and shutting down air travel. Reading the news—Hanoi mandates 7-day centralized quarantine for those double-vaccinated; Hai Phong refuses to open routes; Vung Tau implements testing rules that defy global best practices—one would think Vietnam, a state with strong central power and leadership alignment, was instead living like a conflict zone or the politically polarized states of the U.S.
The Prime Minister is exhausted, and every decision, large or small, is potentially influenced by future political trade-offs. Votes and influence from Central Committee members (who are often the heads of these provinces and cities) are vital for securing political legitimacy and future nominations.
This is the likely reason why “the top commands, but the bottom doesn’t listen,” leading to nationwide chaos. When provinces fail to comply, the Prime Minister can only “seriously criticize” a small provincial leader, like in Kiên Giang, but it is much harder to “scold” the powerful heads of major cities like Đà Nẵng, Hải Phòng, Cần Thơ, or Ho Chi Minh City.
The mandate for the ‘all-In’ approach
By publicly announcing he will not pursue re-election or a future political role, PM Chính removes the primary constraint on bold leadership: fear of alienating Central Committee members and losing future votes.
A Prime Minister free from the worry of political polling and electoral challenges can:
- Utilize top technocrats: He can assemble a truly expert advisory team and implement evidence-based policies derived from international best practices, without fear of stepping on political toes or affecting group interests.
- Restore central authority: He can immediately sideline or transfer any local leader who fails to execute national policy, enforcing true institutional accountability.
- Make historic decisions: He can utilize his established decisive style and competence to make the bold, necessary decisions that guarantee medium- and long-term economic stability and development.
I believe that Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Phạm Minh Chính, given his proven talent and decisive nature, would secure a historic legacy by “going all-in” on this challenge. (And who knows, success often rewrites the rules; history shows that a highly successful leader might even be asked to continue or move higher—making this declaration a win-win strategy.)
