The Chinese naval attack on Vietnamese fishermen in the Gulf of Tonkin in January 2005 was more than a tragic incident; it was a devastating wake-up call. The event exposed not only our immediate vulnerability but also the deep political and economic paralysis plaguing the nation.
As someone who has lived and worked in China, observing their relentless development and strategic ruthlessness firsthand, I cannot help but worry profoundly for the future of Vietnam. China possesses a capable leadership, a clear strategic vision, and an intense national spirit. In stark contrast, Vietnam risks falling further behind due to an astonishing pattern of internal self-sabotage.
I. The crisis of complacency and strategic drift
As an economist, I have yet to see a coherent national economic strategy capable of securing Vietnam’s position over the next two decades against the massive shadow of our northern neighbor.
We revel in complacent self-satisfaction over our 6-7% GDP growth rate, while the Chinese government actively tries to curb their overheating 10-12% expansion. We pride ourselves on being a major rice exporter while China acquires global giants like IBM and sends astronauts into space.
- Debt and capital: Our national debt is mounting and nearing maturity, forcing us into a repayment cycle, even as international lenders like the World Bank and ADB are pleading with China to borrow more money.
- Economic distortion: The rapidly growing private sector endures constant, unfair competition from the state economic sector. Corporate income tax is too high, incentivizing corruption and tax evasion rather than honest investment.
- Wasted capital: We squander millions on oil exploration projects plagued by corruption while China strategically acquires foreign oil fields. We build crumbling, defective national stadiums (like Mỹ Đình) riddled with waste, while China systematically prepares for the 2008 Olympics.
II. The human capital abyss: Education’s failure
Our greatest failure lies in our human capital strategy. The education system is a chaotic mess, incapable of preparing a modern workforce.
- Outdated curriculum: Despite having countless Ph.D.s and professors, we cannot even perfect the basic primary school curriculum. Our high school and university curricula are decades behind global standards.
- Teacher abuse: Teachers feel empowered to physically beat defenseless children, who tragically do not know that no one has the right to strike them.
- Scholarly stigma: Our universities perpetuate an absurd policy of seldom granting grades of 9 or 10, operating under the delusion that such grades are “not for students.” This puts Vietnamese students at a massive disadvantage when applying to top U.S. institutions.
- Talent neglect: Talented students sent abroad on national scholarships receive meager stipends ($700-$900)—barely above the minimum standard for homeless citizens in the U.S.—and often face delayed payments. Simultaneously, we impose endless bureaucratic hurdles (poorly translated transcripts, requiring professors’ signatures) that impede our researchers’ ability to compete globally.
While Chinese students and professors flood top Western universities, absorbing advanced knowledge in everything from biochemistry to nuclear technology, Vietnam’s talent pool is hobbled by its own system.
III. The price of truth and political paralysis
The current government’s attitude toward critique and political dissent is alarming.
We rank among the worst nations in the world for corruption, yet we prosecute those who dare to criticize it. Last month, VnExpress was nearly shut down and its editor severely reprimanded for daring to question an official Mercedes purchase. A reporter from Tuổi Trẻ was arrested for following a pharmaceutical scandal. We are quick to suppress the truth.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government executes corrupt senior officials without hesitation, demonstrating a decisive—albeit ruthless—commitment to institutional integrity.
This paralysis extends to national security. In the wake of the naval incident, we cannot even unite to issue a strong, cohesive statement to defend our sovereignty. We risk triggering internal complications because of our fear of “damaging relations” with our Chinese “comrade.”
IV. The final warning: The shadow of the past
Vietnam endured a thousand years of Chinese feudal domination, a period of economic, physical, and spiritual servitude.
If we fail to establish a clear economic strategy, reform our human resources and educational system, aggressively combat corruption, and embrace modern knowledge, I fear that this dark past will return. The systemic inertia, the political fear, and the self-inflicted wounds we expose in our own system are an invitation for history to repeat itself.
We must change the question from “What are we doing?” to “What must we do now to ensure our survival?”
