In October 1973, during the sacred Islamic month of Ramadan—which was also Israel’s holy month—a coalition of Egypt and Syria launched an attack on Israel. The nation of Israel came close to falling into a disaster of national destruction. The war lasted 19 days, and in the end, Israel repelled the coalition of Islamic nations at an exceptionally heavy price. This conflict was later named the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
For many years prior, the Israeli military establishment had always held an intense belief that the Arab world would never simultaneously attack Israel. This was further expressed in what was called The Concept of Arab Intentions. This doctrine posited that to attack Israel, Arab nations had to unite together and Egypt had to possess aerial attack capabilities. Clearly, this doctrine went completely wrong when the 1973 Yom Kippur War occurred.
This was a massive failure for the State of Israel in general and Israeli intelligence in particular. Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir resigned. Israeli military intelligence suffered a severe loss of credibility and underwent a drastic overhaul. The 10th Man Rule was born from that point onward.
This rule states: If in a meeting regarding a certain issue, 9 people agree on a course of action and perspective, the 10th person is obligated to assume the role of the “devil’s advocate.” The task of this person is to critique, challenge assumptions and cognitive errors/biases in issues, and stand ready to offer the worst possible scenarios. The others must accept and examine the critiques of the “10th person.”
This “10th Man” principle became an important rule for the Israeli military and was adopted by many organizations to avoid risk when making strategic decisions. (Speaking of it now would bring comments like “told you so”).
Returning to the Covid-19 pandemic in Vietnam, if only in the past, during our decision-making process regarding Covid issues, we had a “10th Man” and established a “10th Man” culture to accept harsh criticism and dare to look at the worst-case scenarios, everything might have been different.
If only during the time we were praising one another and extolling ourselves over Covid control (including myself), one of us had bravely thought of a worst-case scenario for Covid-19 like right now. Back then, we (Mr. Tu Anh, Mr. Vinh Du, and I) had coffee and talked about why we were so lucky. That luck exceeded ordinary perception. How could it be that we could suffer nothing while the whole world was submerged in disaster? We ourselves, who always advocate for differentiation and critical thinking through a scientific lens, did not think of a scenario like right now either.
Not a single newspaper back then countered the notion that we were having too much luck and whether that luck would last forever. It seemed as though all efforts to critique current pandemic control policies were not appreciated and not encouraged for publication, or even suppressed. We (including myself) were overly complacent and praised one another, forgetting sobriety when examining the issue.
When the pandemic was just beginning, during the first lockdown in April 2020, Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh My, Deputy Director of the Department of Natural Resources and Environment of HCMC, requested options to cremate people who died from Covid in case the outbreak went out of control. Public opinion erupted in uproar, and the Deputy Director was reprimanded. As of now, that most horrific thing has become reality. We do not have sufficient resources to cremate in a timely manner those who have passed away from Covid in HCMC.
04 months ago, when the outbreak had not erupted, I wanted to publish a newspaper article talking about the prospect of Vietnam becoming a “vaccine-less island” and recommending doing everything to purchase vaccines. But after submitting to three major Vietnamese newspapers (T, V, Z), all three declined to publish on the grounds that it was sensitive and there was no policy supporting messages of this kind. In the end, only VietnamNet was brave enough to publish (and was not reprimanded at all. Perhaps it was fortunate timing that coincided with the Vietnamese government realizing the need to change pandemic prevention policies).
Only then do we realize that we are afraid to mention the worst-case prospect. We evade mentioning the worst-case scenario. And we are not brave enough to hear criticism and think about different assumptions.
Now, speaking out is far too late. I wish that back then, we had dared to speak out and listen to three things (in an official manner):
- Our good luck will run out. We cannot be lucky forever;
- A major crisis due to Covid will certainly happen and must be prepared for in advance;
- Vaccines are a survival-level solution and must be acquired at all costs.
If only we had a “10th person” who dared to bravely speak up about the disaster that could occur. If only…
Photo and information sources:
- https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2018/10/8/the-october-arab-israeli-war-of-1973-what-happened
- https://ttbc-hcm.gov.vn/tphcm-se-lo-toan-bo-chi-phi-hau-su-cho-nguoi-mat-vi-covid-19-1010016.html
- https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/how-israeli-intelligence-failures-led-to-a-devils-advocate-role/
Nguyen Quoc Toan
