If I could give one piece of advice, I would advise the Prime Minister on the following: “Publicly declare that you will retire after this term ends.” The reason is as follows: Borrowing the words of the former Prime Minister of Japan who recently resigned, Mr. Yoshihide Suga, “one cannot both effectively combat the pandemic and simultaneously re-contest for the leadership position of the ruling Party.”
No politician in the world (except dictators) can balance resolving in the best manner an urgent, beneficial task for the nation (which is easily prone to controversy) with their own political future.
When declaring for certain that he will no longer participate in the political arena, with his decisive character and proven strong leadership capacity, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will be able to make bold decisions that will genuinely exert a positive influence in the medium and long term, without being burdened by political calculations and the capability for re-election in the next term.
Localities right now are behaving no differently than warlords. Each place marches to its own beat in its method of combating the pandemic, “blocking rivers and banning markets,” “closing air routes,” and hatching all sorts of quarantines and all kinds of different policies. When reading the news and seeing Hanoi declare 7-day centralized quarantine for people who have received 2 vaccine doses, Hai Phong refusing to open air routes (recently), Da Nang responding to the Prime Minister’s official dispatch demanding an overhaul of pandemic control (in essence talking back because of being scolded), Vung Tau hatching testing and quarantine regulations unlike any best practice in the world, and hundreds of thousands of people fleeing in disarray in all directions, I thought I was living in Democratic and Republican states in the US or in some countries at war like Afghanistan or Lebanon, rather than in a country with a strong government, centralized power, “united leadership,” and “unified people” like Vietnam.
The Prime Minister is exhausted in making decisions, each of which, to a greater or lesser extent, can be influenced by future political calculations. When it comes time for confidence votes and campaigning for the next term, the votes and voices of Central Committee members are very much needed. Thus, this may be one reason why “the top directs, but the bottom does not obey,” and everything gets tangled up.
When provinces and cities do not follow guidelines properly, the Prime Minister and the Cabinet can probably only “severely criticize” leaders of a small province like Kien Giang, whereas with major cities like Da Nang, Hai Phong, Can Tho, HCMC, or Hanoi, it is likely difficult to “chew out” top leaders.
When no longer having to worry about confidence votes, no longer hesitating to offend Central Committee members, and having no need to worry about the next term, the Prime Minister can utilize a team of truly capable advisors, learn from the world’s best practices, and issue strong, bold decisions without fear of offending anyone or affecting any interest group.
The concentration of power will help the Prime Minister handle things significantly faster (of course, on the condition that the advisory team must be truly capable). Whichever leader does not obey can be (temporarily) suspended from work, or reassigned to other duties to “sit around and drink tea.” (Regarding legal risks for the Prime Minister, I think they are very, very low because Vietnamese history has never put on trial, and seemingly has a precedent of not prosecuting, the head of government even when very large mistakes occurred in governance.)
I believe that the Prime Minister, with his outstanding talent and decisive character, will go down in history if he overcomes the greatest challenge for Vietnam and himself personally by going “all-in” on this hand. (And who knows, when he does well, the Party Congress might compel him to continue serving or advance higher – we already have precedent. Therefore, this declaration is beneficial on both fronts).
Nguyen Quoc Toan
